A new analysis of the Graham-Cassidy legislation suggests that it would trigger the loss of 345,000 jobs by the year 2026. The Graham-Cassidy proposal is the latest Congressional effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Leighton Ku, PhD, Director of the Center for Health Policy Research at the George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health (Milken Institute SPH), and colleagues looked at the potential effects of the current version of the bill on employment and state economies.
Key findings of the analysis were:
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Total U.S. employment rises initially but then drops by the year 2026 and would fall even more in 2027 if the short-term block grant is not extended or is scaled back.
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Health care employment drops immediately, declining by 47,000 jobs in 2018; with 267,000 jobs lost by 2026.
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State economies, as measured by gross state products, would erode by $39 billion (in current dollars) by 2026.
If the bill in its current form is passed into law, it would harm states that had expanded Medicaid while helping the non-expansion states, the authors say.
For example, the expansion states of New York and California suffer large losses of 101,000 and 87,000 jobs by 2026 respectively. Texas, a state that did not expand Medicaid, would gain 81,000 jobs, according to the analysis.
The analysis, The Graham-Cassidy Proposal Would Eliminate a Third of a Million Jobs, was published September 26 in The Commonwealth Fund blog.
To interview one of the authors, please contact Kathy Fackelmann at 202-994-8354 or [email protected].
Previous analysis on the economic effects of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act:
Health Reform Repeal Could Cause 3 Million People to Lose Jobs and Trigger Broad Economic Disruption